Which will survive the longest, Orkut or DMOZ? Options

[bwelford]

A thread in another Forum asked whether DMOZ (the Open Directory) was on its death-bed. It got me thinking. I certainly don't think it's on its death-bed today. However what is the future of DMOZ? Where is it going? Is it healthy? Could someone pull the plug on it at some time? Who would that someone be?

Then I got to thinking about Orkut. I hadn't been in there for ages. Checked in and they made a big fuss about some new way of signing in. Seemed to be same old/same old, so I checked out. Where is it going? Is it healthy? Could someone pull the plug on it at some time? Who would that someone be?

Well the second one is easy. That would be Google pulling the plug, if it ever were unplugged.

So my question is easy. Which will survive the longest, Orkut or DMOZ? For precision, I should add ... in its present format.

[projectphp]

Hmmm... great question!

DMOZ, with absolutely no funding, will die at some point. Servers cost money, and since AOL pulled the plug and gave 'ema bunch of $$$ to go away, AFAIK there is no revenue coming in fullstop. So, DMOZ must die in it current format. When is the question. No more than 10 years I would think.

Question is, will Google pull the plug on Orkut before then? Tough question, too close to call!

[bragadocchio]

There are have some rumors circulating around the web that AOL is up for sale. I don't know if that is true or not, but one of the thoughts I had if it happens is that the DMOZ might make it into the hands of a Microsoft or Google. The followup thought to that was, "what would the community surrounding the DMOZ do if such a change of ownership happened?"

Community was the word that came to my mind to describe the DMOZ. I guess my thinking about it has evolved so that I see it less as a directory, and more as a community site. A community that may not necessarily be easy to get into, but seems to have its own mandate about the web that does feel like it has deviated from the core mission that it started with a few years back.

I don't know about Orkut. Is the potential still there to draw together people from around the globe? There seem to be some sites aimed at college students that are doing very well, that are similar to Orkut. Was Orkut a steppingstone to a social network software that gets it, and doesn't make some of the same mistakes? Maybe.

[rustybrick]

But why are we comparing Orkut with DMOZ, they are totally unrelated.

DMOZ, IMO, can probably spring up some additional support (they are like a historical monument on the Web).

Orkut was recently more integrated into Google. You now login with your Google Accounts user/pass. I too rarely ever look at Orkut. But Google did recently add some features, like the Google Accounts integration aspect.

[bwelford]

I agree, Barry , that they're unrelated. However I saw some commonalities that made me think it might be interesting to compare how long they each would survive doing what they're doing.

The commonalities I saw were:
1. Both rely on a large number of members.
2. I see here and there a sizeable number of members who say they've given up on them.
3. I'm not clear on the financial basis of their continuing existance

On your suggestion that DMOZ is a historical monument, I see many cathedrals in Europe that have a hard time surviving. Of course they're stones and mortar so they cannot disappear overnight.

[rustybrick]

Barry,

I see many cathedrals in Europe that have a hard time surviving. Of course they're stones and mortar so they cannot disappear overnight.

Doesnt take much to make those stones disappear.

Can't you see a Google, Yahoo, Ask, MSN buying DMOZ if they are about to go under?

Barry; Signing Out.

[macdesign]

If Google thinks enough of DMOZ to keep downloading the RDF's and propagating the Google directory, then I'm sure they can take a small chunk of the latest stock offering to keep the DMOZ servers running. And the rest of them will be trying to outbid Google just so they have control and not Google.

It's the biggest bargain around. Thousands of free staff, providing free descriptions.

[projectphp]

But would DMOZ accept? I personally doubt it!

[macdesign]

I think anyone can buy it provide they live up to the licensing and continue to make it a free resource. That's not under the control of ODP editors. Of course if all the ODP editors decide they don't want it to happen, then they can quit en masse. In which case DMOZ dies.

[projectphp]

Exactly! Unfortunately, DMOZ has a culture all its own, and I reckon any change will be resisted. What is a directory with no revenue options and a strength (lots of editors) that will be lost if revenue options are explored worth?

[Black_Knight]

It's the biggest bargain around. Thousands of free staff, providing free descriptions.

Yep, the bargain class-action lawsuit of the decade.

You do remember that AOL got rid of all its initial unpaid volunteers from the early days because of the class action they faced? You see, there's this thing called minimum wage. And people in DMOZ keep referring to themselves as 'staff' ... The exact same situation that AOL faced and distanced itself from once before.

DMOZ has escaped that kind of action in seriousness to date, which I believe is largely due to its passing association (in name at least) with Netscape's Mozilla project. Even when AOL aquired Netscape and took DMOZ as a pretty much meaningless legacy in the package, it didn't raise too many eyebrows.

But should DMOZ itself ever be bought, touted as a product/business in its own right, then the buyer is just begging for a lawsuit.

To have any real hope of escaping a legal minefield, DMOZ must clearly be indentified as a non-commercial, open, voluntary project that happens to be given support by a commercial entity. Anything that erodes such identification, be that commercialization thru ads, or a purchase rather than a donation, is like throwing stones at a hive.

[bwelford]

That's an interesting point you raise, Ammon. It points to a difference between the way Orkut and DMOZ might end. In a sense, DMOZ is defined by the community of its members. It presumably would only die through a lack of interest or running out of funds. As TS Eliot put it, "This is the way the world ends: not with a bang, but a whimper."

Orkut on the other hand is what I would call a corporate Tar baby. For those who don't know the story, Br'er Rabbit made this in the hope that Br'er Fox would be intrigued by it and pick it up. Of course once you pick up a tar baby, you can't put it down. The problem is that corporate tar babies can become corporate black holes sucking up cash that disappears without trace. I assume that there are many Orkut members who really love the place. So how can Google get rid of the corporate tar baby?

[Adrian]

Can be done Barry. MSN killed off most of it's chat rooms. Yahoo! has gone along similar lines more recently, cutting them back a great deal and shifting european chat off to Lycos, which is very poor in comparison. There were thousands of regular users of both MSN's and Yahoo!'s chat room, they had built up their own communities in places, they eventually pulled them for various reasons, most people think a mixture of the cost and the issues of child molestation and preventing it (which again would be a large cost).

There were grumbles about both at the time, and I'm sure to the people it affected thought they were very big and serious issues. But from the outside it didn't get much more than a cursory notice. It was reported on, but not discussed a great deal.

If it becomes that big a problem, I'm sure Google can extract itself from it. Especially as Orkut is one of few Google owned services without a 'G' name (and most of the others are ones they bought).

[bobmutch]

With 6 million hand entered sites and 70,000 editors DMOZ is not going to disappear. I think what would be nice is to see a search engine that searches on DMOZ accepted sites only. Now that would clean the spam out of the serps.

People are not searching on DMOZ as their search is lame. They would be come more relevant if there was a search engine that hand all the sites from DMOZ in its index.

Now that's a project for some one. I have thought about it but it is over my head.

[bwelford]

If enough customers ask for it, perhaps Google would offer the option of just searching their Directory, which is in effect the DMOZ Directory.

[Gr8ted3s]

They already do at directory.google.com and of course site:dmoz.org keyword. Of course, both methods won't retrun NEW results. DMOZ's search is the most pathetic I think I've ever seen.

I think it would be the absolute greatest of ironies if M$ were to buy or somehow aquire DMOZ and officially turn it into what it already is in essence removing the hypocrisy and corruption.

bwelford, I believe that DMOZ will last as long as they can afford to AND as long as Google is using it as their directory. IMO, if Google drops them, they become worthless, which is not much better than where they are now.

I think if DMOZ is purchased by anyone other than google that they will throw tissie fits and many that are truly in it because they believe in it will quit. Of course the corrupt editors will stay as long as it is within their best interest to do so.

Orkut is an entirely different animal...of which I know very little about.

[bobmutch]

Gr8ted3s: I don't thing we are talking about searching the contents of the DMOZ or Google directories, at least I wasn't. I am talking about a search engine index with the complete sites that are in DMOZ and only those sites.

Searching 6 million titles and descriptions is almost useless and that is why sites that are in DMOZ are not getting DMOZ click through. No very may people searching in DMOZ as they can get what they are looking for easier in GYMA.

My idea was the quality of search would be away higher as you would be dealing with way less spam.

The rankings weight could be worked out on age of domain, freshness of content, and on-page factors.

It would be an interesting project.

[Gr8ted3s]

My bad...you are absolutely right on all accounts!

[Black_Knight]

I am talking about a search engine index with the complete sites that are in DMOZ and only those sites.

Heh, you've just described the AOL search engine just before they moved to using Google results. AOL would spider the sites in the directory and use that spider-built index for the actual search index. If I recall correctly, that was back when DMOZ was just announcing it was getting close to having 1 million sites in the directory. Actually, now I think of it, didn't Lycos do the same sort of thing too?

Nowhere near comprehensive enough, so they bought in the most comprehensive search index available at the time instead - Google - a deal not too painful considering the Netscape connection anyway.

[GeoffreyF67]

DMOZ sucks. Directories suck.

PM me and I'll tell you how I *really* feel about em

G-Man