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Analysts Warn Of Google's Demise | Seo

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#1 clandestino

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 06:21 PM


if the search engine fails to improve mobile advertising.
 

The only conclusion l can look at is - search is happening more and more
outside of Google, meaning people are searching more through apps than
through Google search. That could indicate a secular change, especially
when it comes to e-commerce searches.

 

The big fear has always been - what if people decide just to go straight to
Amazon and do their searches? And potentially that's what could be
happening.

 

Digital marketing analyst Gary Buchan warned that Google's struggles could
continue over the short term, saying: 'There are probably a few ugly
reports in the pipeline yet.

 

He told MailOnline: 'Around 95 per cent of Google's income comes from its
advertising services, and while many big brands are maintaining their
budgets and are being aggressive to win new customers in the current
economic climate, a large proportion of the search engine's advertisers
are small businesses who are more exposed.

 
Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2m4vszUuF

There you have it, exactly as we have discussed.  g##### is desperate to make mobile and small business advertising go.  That's what's behind their "take no prisoners algo persecution" methods.

 



#2 earlpearl

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 02:04 PM

Chuck:   That article is over a year old.  Since then G's revenues and profits have soared.   



#3 kensplace

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 02:38 PM

Cant wait for the giant to fall and burn.

 

It will be a better day for the world when they lose their monopoly.

 

Google = do evil

these days.



#4 clandestino

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 07:21 PM

Chuck:   That article is over a year old.  Since then G's revenues and profits have soared.   

 

It may be a year old, but explains the reason that g##### is doing these things to you.  It's not as though g##### would say, "O.K. profits are up so let's forget about eliminating competition for our advertsing products for small businesses."

 

There are 2 things that are very important in that article.  1) As @iamlost and I have brought up a number of times, people don't search on mobile, they use apps.  The article explains that ads on apps don't sell and that apps are cannibalizing g#####'s ad revenues.  2) g#####'s customer base is heavily weighted toward small businesses.

 

You know as well as I that business isn't for the faint of heart -- you have to be forward looking and agressive to survive.  g##### knows that the future of it's advertising business is in small businesses.  They have already sold what they are going to at the upper end of the market.  Also the payoff is huge as the size of the small business market is huge.

 

Also, it's easy to infer from what's going on that g##### will elliminate competition wherever it can (that's the definition of a monopoly) and SEO's are a prime target as SEO's are very convincingly selling Organic SEO as a better alternative to PPC.  For example, according to Jupiter Research (acquired by Forrester Research, one  of the most repected industry analysts in the market place) - 87% of all search clicks come from Organic Search, not paid ads.  Plus there are a litany of studies by reputable organizations that say that searchers don't trust paid ads and are up to 6 times more likely to click on a top Organic Search Result (for the sake of brevity, I won't recount them here). 

 

The competition to g##### is formidable from providers of Organic SEO and "Organic Search Do It Your Selfers."  g##### doesn't like it and they are trying to destroy competition of this type.  In addition, g##### wants to withhold data from you so you can't do "High Level" Organic SEO for yourself which has the added benefit of making it harder for SEO's to perform their services.

 

This is no coincidence.  We are getting caught in the middle of a battle for the rights to small business advertising on the web.  And, it's not going to change until one of two things happens - 1) g##### runs all competition out of the marketplace or 2) g##### loses it's monopoly.

 

g#####'s increased revenues are a result of g#####'s war on small business ad competition and, unfortunately, we're part of that competition.

 

Being forward looking and an aggressive business person -- I'm pretty sure we need to find solutions to get around g#####'s web of deceipt and corrupt business practices or it will be us, not them, that will be filing for bankruptcy.


Edited by chuckfinley, 30 November 2013 - 07:37 PM.
sp


#5 clandestino

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 07:35 PM

Cant wait for the giant to fall and burn.

 

It will be a better day for the world when they lose their monopoly.

 

Google = do evil

these days.

 

ditto

 

perfect explanation



#6 earlpearl

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Posted 01 December 2013 - 09:17 AM

Chuck:  I'm no fan of google but the article is 1 year old.  Since then Google revenues and profits have soared.  In fact in that quarter what the article scarcely referenced was that while profits had fallen revenues and revenues from ads were up.   Since then their advertising revenues and their profits have soared.  

 

Our smb's had used lower cost mobile ads in the past.   They killed that this past year.  Bidding for pc and mobile ads are now on the same basis.   I frankly believe the revenue per click data is a false metric that google through out to analysts several years ago.  It would be more helpful and enlightening if they provided different metrics including number of times ads were hit and number of ads shown.   Ultimately those would be far more telling.

 

I do hate the monopoly.  I'd like to see businesses gang up and push the US feds to address G's monopoly.  I follow small business news closely.  I don't believe there is a breakdown even close as to how much google makes from small businesses nor what others make.  There is no data:  Just estimates.

 

I also wish there were believable stats on apps to get to information versus search.  I haven't seen that data either and I've seen it debated.   

 

I would like to see the giant tumble.  I just believe that article from a year ago is not relevant now and the financial results in the last year demonstrate that.


Edited by earlpearl, 01 December 2013 - 09:18 AM.


#7 jonbey

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Posted 01 December 2013 - 06:38 PM

Also, it is the Daily Mail ...... 



#8 clandestino

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Posted 01 December 2013 - 09:23 PM

I was just reading the message in between the print lines.......



Also, it is the Daily Mail ...... 

 

Is the Daily Mail a rag?



#9 jonbey

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 04:33 AM

They are famous for publishing stuff that is very loosely based on fact / reality.

 

A review: http://rationalwiki....wiki/Daily_Mail

 

It is one of the most popular papers / websites in the UK though. Ho hum.



#10 clandestino

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 01:43 PM

g#####Trends

 

 

Apparently like our National Enquirer.  Did you know that Bill Clinton is getting ready to undergo a sex change operation? :)  On the other hand, the National enquirer has, of late, stepped up with some serious breaking news finds --> http://transcripts.c.../23/tod.12.html

 

Hyperbole aside, the Daily Mail reporting, in this case, matches what is actually happening.  From g#####'s perspective, they are losing money when it comes to small business advertising. That's the last loose end to tie up their monopoly in the US.

 

If anything goes wrong for g#####, such as government regulation, those predictions in that article could very well come true and they know it.  It's g#####'s Achilles' heal and they're battling desperately to protect themselves against it.  You can't fault them if the yard stick is being an agressive, proactive business.  The problem is, the number of dead bodies left behind are piling up and someone's going to do something about it at some point.

 

Even shoddy reporting has value when it corroborates other reporting and anecdotal evidence.

 

When John Naisbitt wrote the best selling book, Megatrends, he explained that he used a method that was used in WWII for intelligence purposes -- military intelligence reviewed all newspapers for clues as to current activity that pointed to motives and, therefore, future activities.  That's how he defined the Megatrends that would affect our economy, and his predictions were astoundingly precise -->

 

Published in 1990, the #1 New York Times bestseller Megatrends 2000 was a
run-up to the new millennium. It describes what was beginning to shape
the 21st century, including the Rise of the Pacific Rim, the dawn of the
Age of Biology, The Triumph of the Individual, the emergence of the
Free Market Socialism, a Religion Revival, Cultural Nationalism, and the
Booming Global Economy of the 1990s.The accomplishment of this book was
to identify clear patterns beneath the confusion, to chart a meaningful
course through our future, and to focus on the contributions each
individual can make.

 

All serious businesses should do the same, all the Fortune 500 companies do.


Edited by chuckfinley, 02 December 2013 - 01:50 PM.
gr


#11 bobbb

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 03:17 PM

Is it possible that maybe we should talk about the demise of Bing? At some point won't they just give up? I know that 1% of search is worth x dollars but they must be burning a lot to stay afloat. Does anyone know what their share is?



#12 earlpearl

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 04:19 PM

Chuck:   I have problems with this analysis.  I just don't see it.  Currently.

 

In the year following that article Google aggressively dealt with the results of that quarter.  Ad clicks jumped 26% in the latest quarter in 2013 and cost per click dropped a little.

 

Overall revenues from ads soared.   Profits jumped.  But analyzing google profits from revenues is a different story.  Google can spend tons of money on things that don't bring in revenues...and add to costs.  Or they can cut back on those other activities.  Its up to them.  meanwhile their ad machine is working like a charm.  For them.

 

They don't break down data in ways that I believe would add to more insightful analysis or in a way that substantiates the comments you make.   Nobody knows what they make from small businesses.  I've scanned.  I can't find it.  There might be estimates...but I'd like to see them.

 

The process of adding ppc accts costs them squat.   Its all done to scale and primarily done automatically with very little human time spent on it, if at all.   Once a campaign goes up it makes them money.  Its profitable.   If google wanted to really be profitable for a year they could fire two of every 3 people that don't work in an ad revenue basis and that would cut their personal and overall costs by a ton.  Then their profits would be out of sight.   

 

Of course I suspect that would create a serious quality issue...and then they just might pay for it in lost traffic as people went to other search engines.   But that is another story and merely an hypothesis.

 

I looked at one of our ad campaigns for one of our smbs.   Its been running adwords since 2005.  (google started adwords in 2000 per their own blog).  I checked it on an annual basis from mid year to mid year since we started that campaign.  Its the campaign with the most impressions, clicks, and highest volume of annual transactions. 

 

It appears that campaign more or less "normalized" in 2007/2008.   Since then its volume of clicks has been sort of steady.  Its a regional campaign.  

 

Some interesting data with regard to this campaign and what we have experienced with others.  I think it is somewhat reflective of they ways in which google has been able to expand the volume of clicks across the board.

 

In 2007/2008 the campaign received a little more than 100,000 impressions.  It had a CTR of about 10%.   In the last 12 month period from mid 12 to mid 13 the campaign had about 400,000 impressions.   Google reported detailed info on about 125,000 impressions...and didn't tell us squat about the 275,000 impressions wherein it showed the ads...but where it roughly didn't get clicks.   On the other 125,000 impressions there was a little less than a 10% CTR.  On the 275,000 impressions where they don't tell us what they are doing it had about a 0.2% CTR.   I could go back through details...but its too time consuming.

 

Frankly not a lot of extra impressions on the core keywords that we focused upon about 5 years ago after a lot of experimentation from the earlier years.    

 

But google is showing our ads at a tremendous rate in places where its obviously not too relevant.   And in those places for those keyword searches...it is generating some volume of clicks.  We are paying.  They are making $$$$.

 

While I don't know all those places for which our ads are showing and what the terms are...I do look at the volume of ads for phrases that are critical to this smb and most germane to searchers.   Our good old conversion phrases.

 

Simply the ad column is filled to the max of 10.   Most of the companies in the ad columns are not on target for our critical keyword phrases.   Just as our ads are being shown in places where its not germane....these other businesses are being shown in "our ads".   

 

In both cases it pushes up average cost per clicks on those whose ads sit highly.   There is more competition for the keywords.   The businesses that bid aggressively push up the bid prices.    The result for us is that after 5 years with roughly the same amount of impressions and clicks...we are paying about twice as much as five years ago.

 

Meanwhile I'm sure in those 275,000 impressions wherein google doesn't tell us anything...our ads showing and scarcely ever being clicked on...contribute to pushing up the bid prices on ads that do get hit.

 

We've seen the same circumstances for every one of our smbs.     Regardless of the aggregate cost per click data that google reports...google is aggressively and consistently increasing the volume of advertisers and the volumes of clicks on their ads.   I do believe average revenue per click is a false metric that google has pushed out to the financial community....to mask what is really going on.

 

Of course our situation is a microcosm of what is occurring across the board.

 

I can't see how somebody can say that google is losing money on smb's.   Where does the data come from?   

 

Selling into the smb world is so so tough.   I did it.  You did it.   One customer at a time.   Their time is precious.  They really don't want to speak to you.   Its a rough experience.    Google has a difficult time doing this but so does every entity selling into small businesses.   meanwhile from my observations they keep chipping away at it.

 

Over the  years I keep looking at different verticals in my region.   One thing I've seen is more ads for more smbs and with it ads for the products or services sold on the web or through major businesses.    There are more google ppc ads floating around.   Its not just that I see ads in verticals where I didn't before;  I see 6,7..up to 10 advertisers.   

 

Google is getting more businesses to advertise...and its getting more to compete for each phrase...thus pushing up prices.    

 

Is it possible that average price per click is falling because an infinitely greater number of businesses are advertising...and they start out with lower costs???    That could be.  

Frankly all our sites with mobile get plenty of clicks on ads from mobile search.   I have yet to see a definitive argument that apps are crushing search or vice versa.   Where is the data?

 

One interesting example wherein an app could seriously dent google ad revenues for smb's would be with apple maps.   When they came out a year ago they were a disaster as a presentation.   (OMG...that makes me think about the US govt site for ObamaCare!!!   :D).    Ha ha.

 

What did and what is occurring.   The Apple Maps app was seriously panned.   Apple allowed google maps to reappear as an apple App.   Meanwhile Apple spent a lot and is working a lot to improve the accuracy of its web mapping info and algo's.    (If its efforts are like that of google's it could take a couple of years to get it up to snuff and similarly accurate with google maps now).    With the money they have and the efforts they are making I'm sure they'll get there sooner or later.

 

Maps are a great app for pulling searchers away from local search.   Mapquest, yelp, various alternative mapping apps, etc...and apple maps can seriously dig into the volume of local searches done on mobile and impact potential ad revenues in this manner.

 

Is it occurring?    Nobody seems to have data on this.  If its there please present it.  I'm eager to see it.   I do know that the volume of apple mobiles is so large that it alone would cut into local searches by google.com.   That could alone be sizable.   For the smb whose adwords data I referenced above, in the last 12 months 60% of its mobile traffic came in from apple devices.    That is a lot.   If apple's share of mobile is 30, 40, 50, 60%    that alone is large enough to put a dent into google search...especially if the alternatives on apple phones are agressively pushed and effective.

 

Frankly I believe that Apple is the large threat to google's influence on mobile.   If they maintain their large share of the mobile market and establish alternatives to google search, especially for local smbs and businesses that would impact google's ability to get ad revenues from smbs and from large businesses competing for the local dollar.

 

As an operator of smbs if Apple had ad products and the kind of visibility on its own apps, and the market share of mobile it delivers...we would be seriously pressed to move money there.   If that cut into our google spend...so be it.

 

 

Now I hate the monopoly that is google.  H.A.T.E    I.T.   The straw that broke the camels back in my case was when one of our smb's purchased a competitor, Strangely, it inherited a penalty from LOCAL GOOGLE.   That should not have occurred.   The old smb had a penalty.  It's local account was closed.    We kept the address and we kept the phone number.   We set up a new Google Local Account.  It inherited this penalty that wasn't completely obvious.

 

When we addressed it...it didn't get fixed.    That was where I went nuts.   With google you are in a black hole.  They don't have to do anything.   They let this business die on the vine.   I/we had no recourse.   Google simply controlled this smb's fate.  How f*cked is that?   Who annointed google the most important and powerful force in economics???     We were lucky to get this issue fixed.  Our businesses have faced other obstacles including competitors, market conditions, are own internal issue, and state governments.   None of them were as daunting or powerful, or created scenarios without recourse as did google.

 

I got it fixed...but that was luck and a result of my own long efforts inside google.   Most smb's don't have that resource.   And I was lucky...and I know it.

 

I just don't think the scenario written about in that newspaper is on target.  I think its way off target.   I don't see the US govt taking a shot at google.  I don't see search users (google's real audience) being turned off by google, even remotely.   

 

I don't see US politicians going after them at all.  IMHO nobody in Congress is a real supporter of small business, certainly no party really supports small business in a substantial way.  And frankly google, like many large businesses is greasing the politicians hands with contributions.  And google is spreading that $$$ to the different political stances.    I don't see Congress raising its ires at Google.

 

IMHO hopefully large businesses get fed up with google and push to get the govt to f*ck with them.   That periodically occurs.  Recently the financial businesses and the retailers fought about CC fees.   The retailers won that round.   In telecom phone companies fight with internet providers.

 

Let all business be willing to go after google.   That would be fun, IMHO.   :D



#13 clandestino

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 04:52 AM

In the year following that article Google aggressively dealt with the results of that quarter.  Ad clicks jumped 26% in the latest quarter in 2013 and cost per click dropped a little.

 

Overall revenues from ads soared. 

 


Although everything you say is factual, my gut says no.

 

Why did ad clicks jump 26%?  It sure as hell isn't the economy that's driving it.  So what's doing it?

 

Was is because of all the businesses they screwed that are back on the 100th page now and have to buy their advertising?

 

Did they just adjust the quality score calulations to raise the additional revenue?  You and a lot of other people said their cost per click was going up, not down.

 

And, why do they keep trying so hard to close small businesses?  They've tried every sales and marketing approach possible and everyone knows it's not working.  They suck at it and desperately keep trying.

 

Something stinks.  I don't buy all is well.  Their tactics look desperate to me.

 

Yes they are making a lot of money now, but that could double if they figure out how to capture the small business market.  Or, it could put them out of business if their other revenue streams dry up.  I do believe that's the way they look at it.

 

Hmmmmmmmm.........

 

There's an old joke --

 

A board of inquiry asked an engineer, an attorney and an acccountant what 2 + 2 is equal to.

 

The engineer said there are many kinds of numbers, real and imaginary.  However, he would take the question at face value and would produce the answer as an addition of two real number integers equalling 4.

 

The attorney said often all is not what it seems on the face and it is even more questionable whether the results of such an answer would carry with it the requisite waranties to make the user of such information whole should there be an error and considerable damges are incurred based on a reliance on opinions offered.  However, assuming the legal issues had been adequately addressed, he was willing to opine that the answer was 4.

 

The CPA asked, "What would you like it to be?"

 

Smoke and mirrors, accounting tricks and fraud often inflate the results of operations included in financial statement.  As auditors, we're trained to check that financial results pass a smell test.  I smell a turd.



#14 kensplace

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 09:56 PM

I was just reading the message in between the print lines.......



 

Is the Daily Mail a rag?

 

Its worse than a rag, it promotes hatred, intolerance, even supported the nazi's in the past.

It loves to hate on immigrants, people on benefits, the sick, the disabled, basically anyone who they can wind people up over with made up/faked/hyped stories.

 

But, occassionally, very rarely. they do print a good / accurate story.





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